Treffer: 管理者经营风险感知对公司极端现金流风险的影响机理研究--基于实证研究和案例研究双层面的经验证据

The risk exposure under extreme conditions of corporate cash f low forms corporate extreme cash f low risk, which is one of the main reasons for the business "thunderstorms" of "Wanda" and "Evergrande". The continuous emergence of cash f low crisis cases prompts us to think about whether the intensity of managerial business risk perception is a key pain point. The study defines the "worst-case" scenario at the tail end of the empirical distribution of the (non-f inancial enterprise's) operational cash f low risk, that is, the maximum risk exposure of the operational cash f low, as the "Corporate Extreme Cash Flow Risk". Meanwhile, drawing on the "top-down" measurement approach applied by Stein et al. (2001), using the historical empirical distribution of the company's cash f low risk, based on the 5% tail "worst-case" scenar io, combined with Python machine learning and "prediction", the extreme cash f low risk of the company is measured. "Managerial Business Risk Perception", defined based on the corporate governance structure and the connotation of "risk", is regarded as the predictive outcome of managers (including the governance layer and the management layer) perceiving the "uncertainty" of the enterprise's future operational activities. This study utilizes the annual (quarterly) reports of listed companies on the main board of China, internal-control and market data, and examines the cor relation between managerial business risk perception and the corporate extreme cash f low risk, risk optimization st rategies, and inf luence mechanisms f rom both the macro level of empirical research and the micro level of case study research. This study focuses on the following four questions: (1) Can the enterprise managers themselves sense this risk? (2) How can "Managerial Business Risk Perception" be confirmed and measured? (3) Will managerial business risk perception have a substantive impact on the corporate extreme cash f low risk? (4) Based on "managerial business risk perception", what countermeasures can managers adopt to optimize the corporate extreme cash f low risk? The empirical research of this paper reveals that: (1) Managerial business risk perception has an inhibitory effect on the cor- porate extreme cash f low risk, manifested as: the stronger the intensity of managerial business risk perception, or the greater the positive variance in managerial business risk perception, the lower the corporate extreme cash f low risk. (2) Based on managerial business risk perception, three types of countermeasures to optimize the corporate extreme cash f low risk have been identified, including: strengthening internal-control "risk assessment", increasing the ratio of self-owned capital (reducing the debt level), and increasing the ratio of free cash f low. In further research, through the typical case study of "Vanke", it is found that the measurement indicators constructed in this paper can effectively measure the degree of managerial business risk perception and the level of extreme cash f low risk. Moreover, the risk countermeasures discovered in the empirical research of the paper are close to the business practice of "Vanke" and can align with the facts and performance in enterprise practice. The contributions of this paper lie in: Firstly, it proposes the connotation and measurement method of "Managerial Business Risk Perception". On the basis of previous scholars' research on generalized "risk perception" and "uncertainty", it focuses on risks and uncertainties related to enterprise operation situations and risk assessment. Secondly, it optimizes the measurement method of the corporate extreme cash f low risk. In terms of the algorithm linking "risk characteristics" and "risk valuation data bins", combined with Python machine learning and independent "prediction", the subjectivity of the human link is reduced. Thirdly, it conf irms that managerial business risk perception has an inhibitory effect on the corporate extreme cash f low risk. Compared with previous studies, on the one hand, in previous research, "risk perception" usually takes specific groups as the behavioral subjects, such as public risk perception and investor risk perception. The study focuses on the perception degree of risks by "managers" (including the governance layer and the management layer) of enterprises. On the other hand, in terms of the economic consequences of the company's "cash f low risk", in previous studies, the factors affecting "cash f low risk" mainly include product market competition, interest rate policy, and financial asset allocation, while the factors affecting extreme cash f low risk mainly include enterprise market value, profitability, industry risk, and stock price volatility. The impact of managerial business risk perception on the corporate extreme cash f low risk, especially on extreme cash f low risk, is the special perspective of the study. Fourthly, based on managerial business risk perception, through further data screening and case study research, three types of countermeasures for optimizing the corporate extreme cash f low risk have been identified for enterprises, including: strengthening internal-control "risk assessment", increasing the ratio of self-owned capital (reducing the debt level), and increasing the ratio of free cash f low. Based on the empirical and case study findings, the following inspirations are obtained in this paper: "Managerial Business Risk Perception" is the "early warning line" for the governance layer and the management layer when facing enterprise operational risks, and is the predictive result of the governance layer and the management layer perceiving the "uncertainty" of the enterprise's future operational activities. The governance layer and the management layer of enterprises should quantify and monitor the degree of "managerial business risk perception" of their own enterprises on a regular basis. When the degree of "managerial business risk perception" exceeds a certain threshold, appropriate risk management and optimization measures should be adopted, including but not limited to strengthening internal-control "risk assessment", increasing the ratio of selfowned capital (reducing the debt level), and increasing the ratio of free cash f low, etc., to keep the corporate extreme cash f low risk at an acceptable low level and avoid major financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

公司现金流极端条件下的风险敞口形成极端现 金流风险，是"万达""恒大"等公司经营危机接连"暴雷" 的主因之一；不断涌现的现金流危机案例促使我们思考管 理者经营风险感知强度差异是否为关键痛点。本文运用 企业年度报告、内部控制及市场数据，从实证研究的宏观 层面和案例研究的微观层面，检验管理者经营风险感知 与公司极端现金流风险的关联性、风险应对策略及影响 机理。实证研究发现: （1）管理者经营风险感知对公司 极端现金流风险具有抑制作用，表现为管理者经营风险 感知强度愈强或风险感知正向变动幅度愈大，公司极端 现金流风险愈低。（2）基于管理者经营风险感知，寻找 到三类优化公司极端现金流风险的应对措施，包括: 强 化内部控制"风险评估"、提高自有资本比率、提高自由 现金流量比率。进一步，通过"万科"典型案例研究发现: 本文构建的计量指标较好地实现了管理者经营风险感知 程度和极端现金流风险水平测度，且本研究寻找的风险 应对措施贴近企业实践。本研究为企业防范和应对极端 现金流风险提供了有益的经验证据和优化建议。. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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