Treffer: A mean-variance optimisation model for produce export distribution with postponed shipment and market allocation options.

Global exporters of fresh agricultural produce must determine where and when to ship their goods while facing significant price volatility in their sales markets. Unlike non-perishable commodities, agricultural produce cannot be relocated once shipped, eliminating any opportunity for arbitrage across markets. To address this problem, we present a decision-support tool for fresh produce exporters based on a two-stage stochastic optimisation model that extends Markowitz's Mean–Variance model. Our proposed model implements three risk-mitigation strategies: distribute shipments across multiple markets, use two shipping periods, and delay a fraction of market allocation decisions. Diversifying exports across markets and shipment times enables the exporter to capitalise on negative price correlations, while delaying allocations reduces uncertainty with updated price information. We empirically tested our approach using real Chilean grape export price data to simulate price scenarios and compare our model's results with two benchmark models: one that assumes one shipment period, and another that allows two shipment periods but decides all allocations in advance, without adapting to newly revealed information. Our model significantly outperforms both benchmarks, indicating the value of the three risk-mitigation strategies. Furthermore, as inventory costs increase, the value of postponement decreases; also, having a wider range of markets, with negative correlation, adds value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Production Research is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Volltext ist im Gastzugang nicht verfügbar. Melden Sie sich für Vollzugriff an.